New research shows that fall in North Carolina is growing hotter, part of a broader national warming trend fueled by climate change. Since 1970, the Triangle’s autumns have warmed by roughly 3 degrees Fahrenheit, according to Climate Central, a nonprofit research group.
“We know that the summer season is eating into our fall season,” said Shel Winkley, a meteorologist with Climate Central. “So our cool weather seasons are getting shorter, and that heat season is really expanding.”
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In Raleigh, the 85-degree threshold that once marked the transition from summer to fall now arrives about two weeks later than it did a half-century ago. “We’ve added more of these 85- and 90-degree days to our fall season in the month of September than we did just back in the 1970s,” Winkley said.
The health consequences are already showing up. Virginia Guidry, who directs environmental health at the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services, said the state has recorded more than 5,600 emergency department visits for heat-related illness since May 1. That's about 1,400 more than last year.
“Heat is always a concern for health, especially later in the year, when we start to get out of heat season, and then we’re getting exposed to it again,” Guidry said. She said outdoor workers, children and older residents are more vulnerable to heat stress. “Heat can be life-threatening, and it’s really important for people to take exposure to heat seriously,” she added.
Beyond health, the warming autumn is altering daily life and North Carolina traditions. Football practices have been canceled on sweltering September afternoons. Air conditioners run longer, driving up household energy bills. And warmer nights have delayed the signals that trigger trees to change color, cutting short the state’s famed leaf season.
The changes also intersect with another looming threat. This week marks one year since Hurricane Helene ripped through western North Carolina, leaving millions of downed trees across mountain forests. Those dry, fallen limbs now provide ready fuel as the state approaches its peak wildfire season.
“Wildfire risk across the state is gradually increasing as we inch closer to our typical fall wildfire season,” said Philip Jackson of the North Carolina Forest Service. “Hopefully, we’ll get some much-needed rain in the coming days and over the weekend.”
Scientists say the overall trend line is clear: Without sharp cuts to planet-warming emissions, autumn will continue to feel less like sweater weather and more like an extension of summer.
>> Fall warming trends push Raleigh’s first freeze later by nearly three weeks
“These aren’t the falls our parents or grandparents enjoyed,” Winkley said. “And the ones we’re leaving to our children are only expected to grow hotter.”