At Lake Johnson, the scene on Friday looked like something out of July. Families picnicked under shady trees. Paddleboarders skimmed across the water. A few swimmers waded in. But for many in Raleigh, it’s a strange disconnect: the calendar says fall is near, yet summer refuses to let go.
New climate data suggests there’s a reason for that feeling. In Raleigh, the stretch of hot summer weather now lasts about 11 days longer than it did three decades ago, according to an analysis by climatologist Brian Brettschneider. The trend mirrors broader findings nationwide: summers are starting earlier, ending later, and increasingly “eating into” what we’ve long thought of as fall.
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“Our cool weather seasons are getting shorter, and that heat season is really expanding,” said Shel Winkley, a meteorologist with the nonprofit Climate Central. “In Raleigh, we’re seeing summer-like temperatures hold on about two weeks longer than they did 50 years ago.”
September Is the New August
Labor Day has long been considered the unofficial start of fall — the kickoff to crisp mornings, tailgates, and pumpkin spice everything. But the data tells a different story.
In Raleigh, Winkley explained, the metric temperature threshold often used to signal a seasonal shift, 85 degrees, now hangs on longer. That means September is increasingly behaving like August used to.
“We’re adding more of these 85- and 90-degree days to September than we did just back in the 1970s,” Winkley said. “Those hot days are becoming more common during a time when we’d historically be cooling down.”
Nationwide, record highs are outpacing record lows by roughly 2-to-1 since the early 2000s, according to Climate Central’s analysis of long-term U.S. weather records. And while 2025 has brought a few cool snaps to the Southeast, including the rare dip in humidity on Friday, the long-term trend is clear: summers are warming and fall is arriving later.
Longer Summers, Hotter Nights
The shift isn’t just happening during the day. Overnight low temperatures in Raleigh have warmed more than 3 degrees since 1970, according to Climate Central. Those balmy nights mean it’s taking longer for trees to get the signal they need to begin changing colors, which may delay the start of the leaf-peeping season in North Carolina’s mountains.
“Trees rely on cooler nights to trigger that change,” Winkley said. “Warmer nights mean leaves are waiting longer to turn, and if an early frost hits once they finally do, we could see shorter, less vibrant fall foliage seasons.”
That warming trend could transform Raleigh’s climate in the decades to come. By 2100, Climate Central projects summers here could feel more like Dallas-Fort Worth does today.
Impacts Beyond the Thermometer
For residents like Abby Burton, who moved to Raleigh from New York three years ago, the difference is already noticeable.
“When we first moved here, people said a ‘cold snap’ meant it was going down to 84,” Burton said, laughing. “We thought, What kind of cold snap is that? But you adjust. Summers are just different here, and it’s changing fast.”
The effects ripple beyond discomfort. Longer summers and warmer Septembers can:
- Strain energy bills as residents keep air conditioners running later into the year.
- Extend allergy seasons as plants continue releasing pollen longer.
- Lengthen mosquito and pest seasons, leaving more time for nuisance bites and potential disease spread.
- Impact air quality as hotter conditions exacerbate ground-level ozone and increase wildfire smoke exposure, even from distant blazes.
“We know these changes aren’t all natural variability,” Winkley said. “Human-caused climate change, from burning coal, oil and methane gas, is trapping more heat in the atmosphere, and we’re feeling the effects right here in Raleigh.”
A New Normal
Looking ahead, the changes are expected to continue unless greenhouse gas emissions are significantly reduced. If trends persist, September will increasingly resemble August, and residents should prepare for warmer nights, more late-season heat waves and shifting foliage timelines.
Burton, sitting under a lakeside tree with her husband, summed it up simply: “You just have to adapt, but there’s no denying things are different now.”