On the winding roads near Grandfather Mountain, the first streaks of red and gold are beginning to show. But if you wait too long this year, you may miss them.

A drier-than-normal fall across much of North Carolina, layered on top of a long-term warming trend, is threatening to dull the brilliance and shorten the window of one of the state’s most cherished autumn traditions.

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“Every year is different, because so many different factors go into fall colors,” said Robert Bardon, associate dean of extension and professor of forestry at NC State University. “When it’s dry, trees produce less sugar and leaves fall earlier, which shortens the season and mutes the colors.”

For generations, autumn in North Carolina has followed a familiar rhythm. Maples blaze red, dogwoods flush crimson, hickories turn bronze, and tourists flood the Blue Ridge Parkway for a spectacle that pumps billions into the state’s economy. But the conditions that create that dazzling display are increasingly fragile.

The science rests on balance. Day length cues trees to begin shutting down, but weather decides how rich the colors will be. “Warm, sunny days and cool nights — that’s the perfect combination,” Bardon said. “It traps sugars in the leaves and gives us those reds and oranges. When drought sets in, the sugars aren’t produced, and the leaves fall earlier.”

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, most of North Carolina has been abnormally dry or in moderate drought this September, even as recent coastal storms brought bursts of rain. That stress, Bardon explained, can leave trees less vibrant and more vulnerable to losing their leaves before peak season arrives.

The changes carry consequences beyond scenery. Leaves aren’t just decoration; they are part of the annual cycle that allows forests to store carbon pollution and prepare for winter dormancy. If warming nights or prolonged drought disrupt that process, the colorful season gets shorter and ecosystems pay the price.

“We know the main reason we’re seeing these warmer temperatures is human-caused climate change, pollution from burning coal, oil and gas,” said Shel Winkley, a meteorologist with the nonprofit Climate Central. “In Raleigh, fall nights have warmed about 3 degrees in the past 50 years. To a tree waiting for that cool signal, that’s a big deal.”

The risk, Winkley added, is that if the start of color is delayed and an early frost arrives, the season can shut down abruptly — leaving trees and tourists alike shortchanged.

Still, Bardon points to one resilience: the state’s diversity of species and landscapes. From the coast to the highest peaks, that range still gives North Carolina one of the longest fall color seasons in the nation.

The colors will still come this year, but they arrive with a reminder: even North Carolina’s most cherished traditions are being reshaped by a warming climate.

Climate change is reshaping North Carolina’s fall colors