Ask the Meteorologist: Will the reduction of weather balloon launches affect the forecast?

Weather balloons are a weather tool that has been used by the National Weather Service since the 1930s.

These balloons carry what's called a radiosonde, which measures temperature, dew point, wind speed and many other properties of the atmosphere.

While portions of the National Weather Service have faced staffing shortages in recent years, more recent cuts could threaten this crucial part to the forecast process.

"We're not saying the forecast is going to be garbage. We're just saying it's not as good as it could be," said Gary Lackmann, a longtime professor with North Carolina State University's department of atmospheric science.

Why are weather balloons important?

Why is it that something we've used for the last 90+ years is still so crucial, even in a time of advanced technology?

"You need to take a snapshot of the jet stream and the weather systems at all different levels of the atmosphere to put into the weather models, so that they can give you the forecast going forward," Lackmann said. "And you need as much observation information as possible to get a starting point as good as possible."

Balloon data are most important when the weather gets out of hand. For instance, you can take the relentless storm pattern earlier in the month. This is when there was a tornado outbreak in Arkansas and historic flooding in Kentucky.

The data from these balloons can show how much instability, spin, moisture, etc. is in the atmosphere for forecasters to use.

In fact, the Storm Prediction Center and National Hurricane Center will request special/additional balloon launches ahead of highly impactful events, which emphasizes their value.

It's not just predicting the future, but understanding the current state of the atmosphere.

"You have forecasters that are using that weather balloon data to understand how unstable the atmosphere is, how much wind shear there is," Lackmann said.

Once the balloons collect the data, it arrives and shows a vertical picture of the atmosphere. Often in the winter, we get to tell what kind of precipitation is going to fall in the moment.

Where is the data missing?

The problem is specifically where that data is being suspended or reduced.

On April 17, 2025, the National Weather Service issued notice that it would "reduce or suspend scheduled radiosonde launches at selected NWS upper air sites due to staffing limitations or operational priorities."

In March, NOAA had already suspended lauches over South Dakota, Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan and Wyoming. Note that most of the reduction or suspension in launches has been near and east of the Rockies.

Storm systems often form right on the eastern side of the Rockies in a process called 'leeward cyclogenesis.'

We spoke about this recently in another edition of Ask the Meteorologist.

"To have a group of them missing just to the west of tornado alley is concerning," Lackmann said.

The closest balloon launch to our area happens in Greensboro. Sources within the National Weather Service said those launches are still happening as previously scheduled (twice daily).

What role will this play on forecast accuracy?

Though there is missing data from a few commonly-used balloon sites, there are plenty of other sources for observational data nowadays.

Lackmann provided some insight, explaining, "A lot come from commercial aircraft. A huge amount comes from satellites. We have surface stations. Ships and buoys over lakes, rivers and oceans. We have radar information."

While there is certainly potential impact to the forecast downstream, the overall impact of missing balloon data today is less than it would have been in [say] the 1970s.

How you can play a role!

Observations are oftentimes the most important part of a forecast, be it from a balloon, a plane, satellite, weather stations, ships, buoys or radar sites.

Then, there's the ground truth that we can see - your pictures and videos.

If you see something happening that's worth sharing, you can always do so here.

Have questions about the weather and how it works? Send me an email with the subject line 'Ask the Meteorologist:' to cmichaels@wral.com.